Does she know about shrinkage?

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://possiblyhelpfuladvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/shrinkage2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="90" src="http://possiblyhelpfuladvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/shrinkage2.jpg" width="140" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">LifeHealthPro's Allison Bell reports that "<a href="http://www.lifehealthpro.com/2014/07/02/early-group-health-numbers-show-shrinkage?eNL=53b48312150ba0c26607f48a&utm_source=HCRW&utm_medium=eNL&utm_campaign=LifeHealthPro_eNLs&_LID=107687085" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">[e]nrollment in employment-based health plans may be declining faster than Congressional Budget Office analysts thought it would</span></i></a>."<br /><br />No kidding.<br /><br />Here's a question: Based on <a href="http://insureblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/perception-isnt-reality.html" target="_blank">past performance</a>, why would <b>anyone</b> count on CBO estimates?<br /><br />The bigger question, though, is what these numbers auger for the future of employer-based health insurance. It seems that actual group enrollment "<i><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">may have fallen 2 percent, to 177 million in the first quarter of 2014, from 180 million a year earlier</span></i>." While 2% isn't necessarily catastrophic, one wonders about the long-term trend from here.<br /><br />The SHOP (small business health insurance Marketplace, or Exchange) is due to come online soon, and it will be interesting to see if that has any effect on these dwindling numbers. Based on the experience of the individual market Exchanges, I'd say: not good.</span></div>

Does she know about shrinkage?

LifeHealthPro's Allison Bell reports that " [e]nrollment in employment-based health plans may be declining faster than Congressiona...

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Cannonfiring Halbig

<div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Regular readers will recall that Cato's <a href="http://www.cato.org/people/michael-cannon" target="_blank">Michael Cannon</a> has been all over<a href="http://insureblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/about-that-other-big-obamatax-scotus.html" target="_blank"> the Halbig case</a>. Briefly, Halbig argues that the ACA authorized subsidies only on Exchanges built and run by individual states, not the Fed.<br /><br />Today, the DC Circuit Court is expected to rule on this case. Which way they decide is likely a harbinger of the ObamaTax's future sustainability (such as it is).<br /><br />We'll update this post once the verdict is announced.</span></div>

Cannonfiring Halbig

Regular readers will recall that Cato's Michael Cannon has been all over the Halbig case . Briefly, Halbig argues that the ACA authori...

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Cavalcade of Risk #212: Call for submissions

<div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.weissins.com/blog/blogid/" target="_blank">RJ Weiss</a> hosts next week's Cav. Entries are due by Monday (the 7th).<br /><br />To submit your risk-related post, just <a href="mailto:cavrisk@mail.com" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;"><i><b>click here</b></i></span></a> to email it.<br /><br />You'll need to provide:<br /><br />■ Your post's url and title<br />■ Your blog's url and name<br />■ Your name and email<br />■ A (brief) summary of the post<br /><br /><b>PLEASE </b>remember: ONLY posts that relate to risk (not personal finance tips and the like). And please only submit if you are willing to link back to the carnival if your submission is accepted.</span> </div>

Cavalcade of Risk #212: Call for submissions

RJ Weiss hosts next week's Cav. Entries are due by Monday (the 7th). To submit your risk-related post, just click here to email it....

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Unsustainable - The Party is Over

<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The outlook for Obamacare is extremely cloudy in the Sunshine State (and the other 57 as </span><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgodHUkfj99fYtu6UGYdouPmSYlq7jh2SSarcH4prOj7TUdOlsAZlXB8ju9iauV6OyORtYs63Q7xvs8xEfixjNT4RJPfOMdl99PpREJBKbk5He3lCknNg7XfxoT2xi02vBSfd1GLC_Nw5g/s1600/obama+mess.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgodHUkfj99fYtu6UGYdouPmSYlq7jh2SSarcH4prOj7TUdOlsAZlXB8ju9iauV6OyORtYs63Q7xvs8xEfixjNT4RJPfOMdl99PpREJBKbk5He3lCknNg7XfxoT2xi02vBSfd1GLC_Nw5g/s1600/obama+mess.jpg" width="200" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">well). As bad as it is now, storm clouds are brewing for 2017.</span><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;"><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In two years, the ACA’s structural problems will lead to substantial premium increases. Once that happens, Floridians will likely leave the insurance market in droves. They’ll have little choice—they won’t be able to afford health insurance because federal subsidies won’t keep up with the rapid price increases. Within a decade, this could swell the ranks of the state’s uninsured by 45 percent.</span></i></span></blockquote><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;"><b><a href="http://tbo.com/list/news-opinion-commentary/floridas-affordable-care-act-future-is-bleak-20140702/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tampa Tribune</span></a></b></span><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Well that's disturbing.</span></span><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But why won’t this happen until 2017? Because that’s the year when the Affordable Care Act goes into full effect and certain temporary provisions begin to sunset. The changes will affect all plans sold for 2017 and beyond.</span></i></blockquote><blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Two big changes will occur that year: Insurance companies will no longer have access to ACA’s “re-insurance” and “risk corridor” programs. The first item currently allows insurers to bill the government for the most expensive patients; the second one guarantees that the industry’s losses will be subsidized by you. When these two programs end, the insurance industry won’t have access to taxpayer money.</span></i></blockquote><blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That leaves Floridians to pick up the tab. </span></i></blockquote><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2017.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Very significant.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2016 is Obama's last year as president.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Crowd goes wild.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Whoever inherits what is left of the Oval Office will see something like the mess following a frat party. </span></div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin-bottom: 13px; margin-right: 13px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And to think Obama and Uncle Joe said they had it bad with what they inherited.</span></div><br /><br />

Unsustainable - The Party is Over

The outlook for Obamacare is extremely cloudy in the Sunshine State (and the other 57 as well). As bad as it is now, storm clouds are brewin...

Read more »